There's no doubt that in the last 10 years or so the headline battle has gone to the Online guys. Disruptive technology tends to do that. "12,000% change in online spending last 20 years" is a headline I'm yet to see but I'm expecting to any day now.

Obviously, the rise and rise of online is a huge story. But it's only part of the puzzle.

Because, as I've noted before and BRW reminded me yesterday ("Why Retailers With Physical Stores Have The Edge" January 17, 2014), online still only represents 5-6% of overall retail activity in Australia. Almost pure heresy to talk about this in agency circles because it brands you as an old fart. But these are the numbers.

In fact, startup consumer finance provider Pocketbook found that Australian consumers doubled their spending in bricks & mortar stores in December; spending online was relatively flat.

This flattening of online is pretty much in line with US holiday season figures which were more about the shift to mobile within digital commerce than a continuing huge trend to digital ("State of Mobile Retail - US Holiday Season 2013 Snapshot").

That doesn't mean online/mobile is a fad; far from it; consumers have voted with their wallets. 

But while investment by retailers lags consumer expectations (see "The Advance Guard of Mobile Shoppers"), growth will be suppressed. It may even be that additional enabling technology will be necessary to cause an additional step-change.